AEC official count
Checking feedOfficial results by electorate
| Electorate | Formal first preferences | TCP votes | AEC declaration | Model estimate |
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National polling snapshot
LoadingFirst preferences from five national pollsters. Fieldwork age and sample size determine the weights.
Polls and published head-to-head figures
| Pollster | Fieldwork ended | Sample | Labor vs Coalition | Labor vs One Nation |
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House seat model
Scenario · 2025 candidates and boundariesAdjust national first preferences to explore seat outcomes. The model can change the final two among the 2025 candidates. New candidates and the next redistribution are reflected in the live count when the AEC publishes them.
The inputs start with the dated polling snapshot above. Enter shares that total 100%.
Electorate simulations
| Electorate | State | Most frequent winner | Wins in draws | Most frequent final pair | Pair in draws |
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Historical checks
2004–2025| Election | Final polls | AEC Labor 2PP | AEC minus polls |
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2025 polling backtest · fixed-pair model
| Group | Simulated median (middle 80%) | AEC final |
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